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06/21/2010 -
DENVER (AP) -After hitting the jackpot with two high picks in the draft last June, the Colorado Avalanche feel the pressure to replicate that this summer.
Hardly easy.
Those two players they selected weren't your typical teenagers.
From now on, every Colorado draft pick will be measured against Matt Duchene (third overall) and Ryan O'Reilly (No. 33).
Hardly fair.
The performances Colorado received last season from Duchene and O'Reilly were far from the standard. The talented twosome became a crucial component in the team's turnaround, lifting the organization back into the playoffs a year after finishing in the basement.
``That instant success tells us we're on the right path,'' said Avalanche director of scouting Rick Pracey, whose team has seven total picks - including the 17th overall - during the two-day draft that begins Friday night. ``But I think the hockey fan base is knowledgeable enough to realize it's more of a wait and see thing.''
Wait and see didn't really apply to these two.
Duchene and O'Reilly made the team out of camp as the Avalanche became the first NHL squad to boast two 18-year-olds in the season opener since the Winnipeg Jets suited up Shane Doan and Jason Doig in 1995.
The youngsters held their ground quite nicely, too, the ever-elusive Duchene leading all NHL rookies with 55 points and O'Reilly contributing in less glamorous areas such as faceoffs and blocked shots.
And to think these two were almost sent to their major-junior squads for one more year of maturing.
Instead, Duchene moved into captain Adam Foote's basement to help advance his hockey education while O'Reilly took up residence with veteran Darcy Tucker.
With the duo's rapid rise, expectations have gone up.
``There is pressure on us,'' Pracey said of uncovering that next draft gem. ``But I think it's more that there is pressure for us to find a player than it is that plays next year.''
Going into this summer's draft, the Avalanche aren't really targeting a certain position.
Rather, they're taking a similar approach as last time - scouring for the best player available. That's how O'Reilly wound up in Colorado.
The team had him pegged as a top-15 prospect. So when O'Reilly began to tumble down the board, the Avalanche attempted to move up to snare him.
A trade partner couldn't be found, yet O'Reilly still fell to Colorado.
``We're confident that depending on how the board shakes out, we're looking at a group of players in our area that we'd be happy to get our hands on,'' Pracey said. ``But I would like to hit it out (of the park) every year.''
Colorado has actually had a string of bountiful drafts in recent years.
In fact, the 2010 playoff roster against the veteran-laden San Jose Sharks contained 16 players who were drafted by the franchise. That included another first-rounder in Chris Stewart (2006) and second-rounders such as T.J. Galiardi (2007), Paul Stastny (2005) and Ryan Stoa (2005).
Buoyed by a group of fledglings, no one really expected Colorado to accomplish much of anything last season.
Clearly, the prognosticators concluded, another last-place finish awaited.
The young players developed an us-against-the-hockey-world mindset, serving them well all season long. Colorado regrouped from a late-season slide to make the postseason for a 12th time in 14 seasons in Denver.
In the playoffs, Colorado had 12 different members make their debut in a loss to the Sharks, including coach Joe Sacco, who was hired soon after last season's meltdown and groomed this core of kids into a cohesive unit.
He relied heavily on the leadership of Foote, who recently signed on for one more season of mentoring despite turning 39 in July.
``Having a young group like we did last year come together and compete at a high level was very special,'' Foote recently said. ``We're looking to carry that momentum into next season.''
Another draft class like last season certainly would help. But striking gold twice is a difficult proposition.
``We are obviously very pleased with the way things worked out last year,'' Pracey said. ``But I think it's important to keep in mind that having two 18-year-olds play in the National Hockey League certainly isn't the norm. So we have to remind ourselves that this is a process.
``The best way to stay the course is to stay with the plan and not get ahead of ourselves - keep in mind what has been successful in the past.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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