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10/23/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After starting the season 0-4, the New Orleans Saints are treating every game like a must-win.
That's just fine for Reggie Bush, who ran for 54 yards and added five receptions for 19 yards and the game's biggest score as New Orleans outlasted Atlanta, 22-16, on Sunday.
The game wasn't pretty, but the Saints pulled it out. On the flip side, New Orleans looked bad enough for even the most optimistic fan to note that the Falcons have been utterly dreadful this season and the Saints still just barely got by them.
What does that say for a team which is now two wins shy of getting back to .500 at the midpoint of the season? Are these the real New Orleans Saints, now riding the momentum of back-to-back victories and getting the production out of Bush that they expected all along? And will they be content with the fact that, for now, they only have to be a little bit better than the other team?
Or is this the same team that looked nearly unrevivable a few short weeks ago, consistently trumped by the numbers on the scoreboard and plagued by the old mantra, "Everything that can go wrong will go wrong?"
"I think we have played better football and as a result we have won a couple of games," said head coach Sean Payton. "There is a lot to improve in without even looking at the tape. We have to be consistent on a number of things.
"I think it is a work in progress. The thing about this league is that you are what your record says you are. Fortunately, we have been able to get a couple of wins, but we have a long way to go. Our players understand that."
LATE GAME HEROICS
The Falcons, trailing by a point heading to the fourth quarter, took a 16-14 lead on Morten Andersen's 21-yard field goal with 10:22 remaining in the contest.
The Saints answered with an efficient 69-yard, 11-play drive, capped by a four-yard swing pass from Drew Brees to Bush with 5:04 remaining. Bush caught the ball at the two-yard line, shrugged off three defenders (and a would-be tackle by Falcons' cornerback Lewis Sanders) and dove across the goal line to put New Orleans back on top for good.
Bush wasn't done, however, as he swept around the right end and dove for the pylon to complete the two-point conversion, giving the Saints a 22-16 edge with about five minutes to play.
"We were just trying to catch the defense off guard," said Bush. "We ran it quick. We really didn't want to give them a chance to get set. They were bringing personnel when we were getting set. That obviously helped us out a lot. We caught them off guard. As far as the two-point conversion, it's a play we normally run quite a bit. We hadn't run it all game. It was the perfect call in the right situation."
Then, after the Falcons punted with less than two minutes left, Bush sewed up the victory with a seven-yard run that gave the Saints a first down and enabled them to run out the clock.
NEAR-DOMINANT "D"
The defense kept the Saints in the game for a third straight week, giving up only a couple of big plays while Atlanta managed just three field goals and one touchdown.
The Saints didn't blitz nearly as often as they did a week ago at Seattle, but they got enough pressure on Atlanta's Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington, finishing with three sacks (credited to Charles Grant, Brian Young and Kendrick Clancy), while strong safety Roman Harper led the way with six tackles.
Leftwich went 15-of-23 for 145 yards and a touchdown but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, while Harrington finished 12-of-18 for 128 yards.
The Saints defense also didn't force any turnovers, but the Falcons did lose some ground on three fumbles, and each time, they were eventually forced to punt.
"We knew it was a game that was going to come down to the wire," said Saints linebacker Scott Fujita, who finished with four tackles. "We expected it to be a tough game, one of those days where you come early and stay late. Our defense today stepped up and made plays when we had to. When it counted and we had to make plays we did. It starts with the guys up front, those guys played huge today, they put a lot of pressure in the quarterback's face, and that was something that we needed to get done."
WILL THE REAL DREW BREES PLEASE STAND UP?
After a strong performance against the Seahawks last week, Brees completed just 22-of-34 passes for 219 yards, with two TDs and one interception against Atlanta. He also failed to establish a rhythm throughout the game, as the Saints converted just 4-of-12 attempts on third-down.
While Brees' performance wasn't alarmingly bad, he has now tossed a league- leading 10 interceptions this season and has a QB rating of 69.1.
Still, Brees tried to accentuate the positives after Sunday's victory, including a 37-yard touchdown pass to Devery Henderson in the first quarter.
"That was big. Especially early on, it was a way to get this game started," Brees noted. "We got in great field position on the punt return and went three-and-out but then came back the next time and got into one of those situations where we expected them to be playing the coverage that they did and we were able to get Devery up through a hole. Obviously he made a nice catch and it was a great way to get the whole thing started. It was a big play touchdown that we've been talking about for the last few weeks and getting back to the big plays that we used to make."
UP NEXT
In a clash of two teams going in opposite directions, the Saints are heading to San Francisco to battle the 49ers, who won their first two games of the season but have dropped their last four.
This trip could be another step for New Orleans to get back in a mediocre NFC South race, but they need Bush to remain a prominent threat on the ground and through the air.
The last time these two teams met, the Saints were riding a three-game win streak that catapulted them into the playoffs. They also had the services of Deuce McAllister, who ran roughshod over the Niners then, but won't be a factor now.
This could be another ugly game for New Orleans, which looks to be in for a tightly-contested battle.
"They are coming off of a tough loss and going out to San Francisco to play is difficult," Payton added. "It's loud and they have a lot of history and tradition and have played well traditionally at home. The focus starts with us, and doing all the little things specifically that give us the best chance to win. We know we are playing a team that is hungry for a win. They started off fairly strong and have slowed down of late, but it is going to be a challenge for us going on the road, we will have our work cut out for us."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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