Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
08/19/2007 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Hill hit a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th to lift the Toronto Blue Jays past the Baltimore Orioles, 3-2, in the finale of a three-game series at Rogers Centre.
Vernon Wells scored the game-winning run and added an RBI for Toronto, which has won four of six.
Roy Halladay went nine strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and three walks. Scott Downs (2-2) worked a scoreless 10th to pick up the win.
Opposing starter Jeremy Guthrie had a quality outing as well, yielding two runs and three hits over eight innings while fanning six for the Orioles, who have dropped two of three. Chad Bradford (2-6) was ineffective in relief, though, and was tagged with the loss.
Brian Roberts had an RBI and a run scored in defeat.
Wells started the 10th with an infield single, and moved to second on Frank Thomas' groundout. Troy Glaus followed with a single to put runners on first and third with one out. Hill capitalized with a fly ball to deep left, scoring Wells easily to end the game.
The Orioles put up a pair of runs in the third to move in front. Jay Payton led off the inning with a double, advanced to third on a wild pitch, then scored on Roberts' base hit to right. Baltimore went on to load the bases, and upped its lead to 2-0 on Kevin Millar's fielder's choice grounder.
Toronto sliced its deficit in half in the fourth courtesy of an RBI double by Wells, and Glaus led off the fifth with his 16th home run of the season to knot the contest at 2-2.
Game Notes
Baltimore stranded seven runners, while Toronto left just two on base...Attendance was 38,132...Toronto has won seven of its 12 matchups with the Orioles this season and is 28-22 in the series since the start of the 2005 campaign.
<< Devil Rays place Zobrist on DL
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Devil Rays placed
shortstop Ben Zobrist on the 15-day disabled list Sunday with a right oblique
strain.
Zobrist was hurt swinging at a pitch in the team's 8-1 loss to Cleveland
<< Hamburg wins again; Bechmann double carries Bochum
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael van der Vaart converted a penalty
kick in the second half to help Hamburg to a 1-0 defeat of Bayer Leverkusen
while Tommy Bechmann scored a pair of goals to lead Bochum to a 2-1 victory
over En
<< Mets' Easley placed on DL
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Mets placed infielder Damion
Easley on the 15-day disabled list with a Grade 3 left ankle sprain.
Easley left the Mets' 7-4 victory against the Washington Nationals Saturday
in the sixth i
<< Ilonen claims second win of '07
Stockholm, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikko Ilonen birdied the par-three 18th
Sunday, then watched as Martin Kaymer closed with a double-bogey.
Kaymer's closing double handed Ilonen his second win of the season. Ilonen
completed the eve
Mets swat Nats to complete sweep >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Beltran went deep twice and knocked
in four runs as the New York Mets pulled away late to down the Washington
Nationals, 8-2, and complete a three-game sweep at RFK Stadium.
Shawn Green and Ma
Flanagan headed to PGA thanks to comeback win in Rochester >>
Rochester, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Flanagan roared from behind Sunday with
a seven-under 63 to overtake James Driscoll and win the Xerox Classic.
Flanagan ended the tournament at 10-under-par 270, one stroke clear of
Driscoll, w
Snedeker earns first PGA Tour win >>
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandt Snedeker fired a nine-under 63 on
Sunday to come from behind and win his first PGA Tour title at the Wyndham
Championship.
He finished the shootout at 22-under-par 266 and won by two over th
Damon, Betemit help Yankees power past Tigers >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnny Damon finished 3-for-4 with a home run,
and Wilson Betemit drove in four runs as New York bested Detroit, 9-3, in the
finale of a four-game set at Yankee Stadium.
Betemit was 2-for-5 with an RBI single
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting