Blue Jays' Anthopoulos building on youth

Baseball Betting Lines

07/16/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When your pockets aren't deep and you live in the American League East, you need to do things a little differently. With a new general manager in town, it seems as though the Toronto Blue Jays have finally come to understand that motto.

It's been less than one year since Alex Anthopoulos replaced J.P Ricciardi as GM of the Blue Jays and he's looked anything but a man in his early 30's in his first year on the job.

Although their record may not indicate it at 44-45, Anthopoulos has brought an optimism of hope back to the club despite playing in a division that features the three best teams in the American League. The task left for him was not easy either, as he had the responsibility of unloading the franchise's greatest pitcher, Roy Halladay.

Anthopoulos took over with a vision that, at this point, most Torontonians can probably feel comfortable trusting after living through eight years of Ricciardi's five-year plan. Nobody said it would be easy, especially when the Jays have to look up to AL East behemoths New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, but Anthopoulos has executed his plan well.

He's building through youth and high-ceiling, high-potential types of players. A few of those pieces were already in place, but the new GM has done a solid job supplementing the existing talent.

A look at some of the key moves made by Anthopoulos:

Anthopoulos stepped into a tough spot - despite being the assistant GM before taking over the role - as he would become the man responsible for trading away the best player on the roster. He went to work quickly, landing the Jays three very good prospects in starting pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis d'Arnaud and outfielder Michael Taylor from the Philadelphia Phillies. Taylor was immediately shipped to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for Brett Wallace, the future first basemen of the Jays who already has played for three organizations during his brief span in the minor leagues.

While it's impossible to replace Halladay's arm and work ethic, but this type of return could prove to be a success for years to come. All three players made their respective minor league All-Star games this season, and Wallace and Drabek are on a fast track to the majors. Wallace did not participate in the Pacific Coast League's All-Star Game (Triple-A) due to a wrist injury, but his teammate Jarrett Hoffpauir, someone Anthopoulos also snatched up in the offseason, took his spot. Hoffpauir has seen a little bit of time this season, appearing with the big club in nine games.

The youth movement continued by way of the draft this past June, as Anthopoulos selected a little bit of everything, starting with a polished college arm and continuing with some high-potential prospects and homegrown talent. He made a point of targeting pitching, using his first four picks to select right-handers Deck McGuire, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard and Asher Wojciechowski as well as capitalizing on Canadian-born talent. The most intriguing of which is Ontario-native Marcus Knecht, who batted .472 with 16 homers at Connors State College last year.

As much as Anthopoulos has concentrated on a youth movement, the team entered the season with several holes still to fill. Although his offseason signings didn't appear to be significant at the time, even the most optimistic of supporters couldn't have foreseen the production the Jays gotten from their additions. Catcher John Buck is enjoying his finest season and fresh off his first All-Star game, shortstop Alex Gonzalez is on his way to a career year and Kevin Gregg, despite being shaky at times, has converted 20-of-23 save opportunities.

Gonzalez, who hit 17 home runs and drove in 50 runs in the first half, was never part of the long-term plan, which is why his trade to the Atlanta Braves came as no surprise. The five-player deal was essentially a swap for shortstops, where the Braves were more concerned with the now and the Jays for the future, as they are willing to let Yunel Escobar play through his current struggles. Although he's having a down year, the 27-year-old still has plenty of upside and is coming off a fine 2009 season, when he hit .299 with 14 homers and 76 RBIs - the later numbers career highs. If Escobar, who is hitting .238 with no home runs, doesn't bounce back, the Jays also have Cuban Adeiny Hechavarria, an offseason acquisition who is currently playing in the minor leagues but projects to be the shortstop of the future.

The biggest steals for the Jays have come in the form of outfielder Fred Lewis and starting pitcher Brandon Morrow. Lewis was acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the beginning of the season and has turned out to be a complete success. The 29-year-old is batting .276, leading the team with 10 stolen bases and has become a fan favorite in Toronto.

Morrow, on the other hand, has finally found a role, as he's not only firmly entrenched in the Jays' rotation, he's quite possibly the future ace of the staff. He still needs to string together more consistency, but has shown flashes of dominance during his first year as a Blue Jay. He came over to Toronto in an offseason trade with Seattle.

There's a lot of hope for the Blue Jays moving forward, with Anthopoulos steering the ship into a deep pool of youth. Toronto already has a surplus of young players thriving in the big leagues, led by a rotation whose oldest member is 28-year-old Shaun Marcum. It goes without saying that Anthopoulos has done an exceptional job and has the Jays heading in a positive direction.

For the fans, this team has become a breath of fresh of air. This truly is a new era for Blue Jays baseball.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.